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9-19-24 Commentary:

• The soybean market continues to coil, waiting for a breakout.

• S Am sources noting recent “reported” sale of 88 K MT of U.S. beans to Argentina (some suggest it may be an error) as well as what has been a rather large Argentine SB import program the past year. The Sep-Aug total said to be around 7.8 MMT with most of that coming from Paraguay. Exportable supplies in both Paraguay and Uruguay are becoming exhausted. Brazil’s current export line-up has one vessel destined for Argentina. With Arg processors having difficulty originating beans, might more U.S. purchases be possible?

• Huge grains ships loading up with soy and corn at Argentina's major inland river ports around Rosario are taking on less cargo as water levels drop to near record lows due to a major drought upstream in Brazil, pushing up costs and transport times. The Parana River, which carries almost 80% of Argentina's grains and oilseeds for export, is at the second lowest level for this time of year since 1970, behind only a major decline in 2021, data from the Rosario grains exchange show. The drop in river levels, so soon after the last major decline, underscores how more extreme weather, linked to climate change, is hitting trade along major waterways in the resource-rich region that supplies the world with grains and metals. The low levels now are forcing the huge seagoing boats that load up at the inland river ports near Rosario to take on thousands of tons less cargo, industry insiders said.

• Russia's vast Krasnoyarsk region declared a state of emergency on Thursday due to heavy rains killing winter crops during sprouting time, bringing the total number of Siberian grain-producing regions under emergency conditions to four. Earlier in September, a state of emergency was announced in the Tomsk, Novosibirsk, and Kemerovo regions. Together, the four regions accounted for about 5% of last year's grain harvest in Russia, the world's largest wheat exporter. Declaring a state of emergency can allow farmers to claim compensation.

• Ukraine's corn exportable surplus is likely to fall sharply in the new 2024/25 marketing year because of a significant drop in the harvest caused by poor weather, Ukraine's leading agricultural producers union UAC said. "We forecast a corn harvest of 21-22 million tons, of which about 5 million will be consumed on the domestic market," UAC said in a statement late on Wednesday. "The export potential of corn is estimated at 15-17 million tons, which is almost half as much," the union said, adding that Ukraine had shipped abroad around 30 million tons of corn in 2023/24. The UAC estimates are much lower than the latest official forecast which put the exports at up to 22 million tons.

CORN:

• Export Sales report at 7:30 am CDT--trade estimates; Corn 22-55 for the 24/25 crop year
• Brazil’s corn export lineup declined 14 to 194 million bu. the past week, and is less than one-half of the 407 million bu. year ago total
• Ethanol grind: 1,049,000 bpd for week ending Sept. 13, down 2.9% vs. last week but up 7.0% vs. last year. Stocks were 23.785 mb, up 0.0718 mb from the prior week and above the average trade estimate of a 0.026 increase
• NWS will release its updated October U.S. forecast today (Sept. 19)
• U.S. corn mature on average increases ~17% from Sept. 15-22. The USDA est. mature at 45% on Sept. 15, while the five-year avg. on Sept. 22 is ~55%
• The Funds were even with new fundamentals lacking

SOYBEANS:

• Trade estimates for USDA Export Sales report (week ending Sept. 12)
• Beans: 18-59 for 24/25
• Meal: (50)-200 for 23/24; 100-450 for 24/25
• Oil: 0-10 for 23/24; 0-10 for 24/25
• NWS will release its updated October U.S. precipitation and temperature forecast today (Sept. 19)
• U.S. soybeans dropping leaves on average increase ~20% from Sept. 15-22. The USDA pegged nationwide progress at 44% on Sept. 15 this year, while the five-year average on Sept. 22 is 57%
• Funds bot 4 K SB; sold 1 K SM; bot 4 K BO. Oct Crush, -$.04 @ $1.36

FINANCIALS:

 Futures are higher on ½ point Fed rate cut—inflation slowing/labor market weakening

WALL STREET FUTURES - Firmer:

Dow, +396; S&P, +77; NAS, +346

Asia - Firmer:

Nikkei, +2.13%; Shanghai, +0.69%;

Hang Seng, +2%

EUROPE - Firmer:

DAX, +1.37%; FTSE, +1.16%; CAC +1.91%

December Gold: +$14.5 @2,613

November CRUDE: +$0.76 @$70.64

Dec U.S. Dollar Index: +0.003 @100.282