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11/27/23 Commentary:

• Soybean futures went down and touched the 200-day moving average and bounced off of it.
• Taking the low end of current S AM soybean crop estimates which seems to be around 156.6 for Brazil and 48 for Argentina, the 2-country total is still 21.6 million metric tons (800 million bu.) larger than last year. And, the latest forecast for Paraguay would add an other 30-35 million bu. to that total.
• Chicago soybeans fell to more than three-week lows on Monday as rain in parts of Brazil's oilseed producing areas eased crop concerns, even as leading consultants reduced their output forecasts. Wheat firmed, recouping some of last session's losses, while corn was largely unchanged. "There have been some rains in Brazil and forecasters are looking at more wet weather," said one Singapore-based trader at an international trading company. "And Argentina's output is going to rebound, so overall we expect ample supplies from South America in 2024."
• China's most active hog futures closed down 5.69% on Monday at a record low, after farmers ramped up selling of pigs following months of weak prices, hitting market confidence. The January contract fell to 14,660 yuan ($2,032.98) per metric ton in the biggest daily decline since June, and despite the state planner announcing on Friday it would stockpile more pork to support prices. China's cash hog prices have been falling since August on large oversupply and weak demand and dropped another 4% in the past week to 14.41 yuan per kilogram on Monday.
• Brazil's 2023/24 soybean planting had reached 74% of the expected area as of Thursday, agribusiness consultancy AgRural said on Monday, up 6 percentage points from the previous week. Sowing continues to lag behind last year's levels, when 87% of the areas had been planted at the same time, AgRural said in a statement.
• The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies led by Russia, known as OPEC+, will begin its formal meetings to decide oil output levels at 1300 GMT on Thursday, according to a draft agenda seen by Reuters on Monday.

CORN:

• U.S. export sales update for the week ending Nov. 16
• 23/24 corn sales of 56.4 million bu. were within trade range of 28-63
• top buyers: Mexico (29.4) & Japan (13.2)
• unshipped corn sales to all destinations are 607 million bu. versus 485 last year (+25%)
• Emater-RS pegged 1st corn planting in Rio Grande do Sul-Brazil at 82% last week, a 1 p.p. WoW increase, vs 82% LY & 5-year avg. of 85%
• T-storms are expected to continue affecting south Brazil, with below normal rainfall in central and northern areas over the next 14 days
• Funds sell 7 K as CZ makes new low, pressure from soy and wheat

SOYBEANS:

• U.S. export sales update for the week ending Nov. 16
• beans sales of 35.3 million bu. were within the trade range (29-66)
• top buyers: China (27.8) & Spain (6.2)
• unshipped bean sales to all destinations are 495 million bu., versus 722 million bu. last year (3-1.4%)
• soymeal sales: 203.6 MT vs. 144.8 last week & 193.5 MT two weeks ago
• unshipped sales are up 36.4% versus last year.
• Excessive rain in south Brazil continues to delay soybean planting in Rio Grande do Sul: 25% planted, vs. 55% LY, and 5Y avg. of 63% (EMATER-RS).
• Funds sold 8 SB, 1 SM, 9 BO. Jan crush, +$.01 @ $2.42/ bu

FINANCIALS:

Major indices are slightly lower, several data releases this week.

WALL STREET FUTURES - Weaker:

Dow, -27; S&P, -3.75; NAS, -11

Asia - Weaker:

Nikkei, -0.44%; Shanghai, -0.71%;

Hang Seng, -0.89%

EUROPE - Firmer:

DAX, +0.22%; FTSE, +0.06%; CAC +0.2%

December Gold: +$10.4 @2,013

September Crude: $-1.24 @$74.30

Dec U.S. Dollar Index: -0.089 @103.304