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5/8/2025

Corn attempting to stay positive with wheat; beans down a couple cents overnight.

• China, the world's largest soybean buyer, has resumed Brazilian soybean shipments from five firms previously suspended over phytosanitary concerns, according to a source familiar with the matter and Chinese customs data. Brazil is the world's largest soybean producer and exporter, and the top supplier to China as the trade war drives Beijing to diversify away from the United States, its second-largest supplier. The source confirmed that the resumption of supplies began on April 25, weeks ahead of a planned state visit to China by Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and at a time when China is trying to marshal a global coalition against the U.S. trade war. Reuters reported in January that China had suspended imports from related entities of Terra Roxa Comercio de Cereais, Olam Brasil, C.Vale Cooperativa Agroindustrial, Cargill Agricola S.A., and ADM do Brasil. Global giants like Cargill have many subsidiaries licensed to export to China. Brazil said at the time it intended to raise the issue with Beijing and its agriculture ministry last month provided officials there with information about the suspended firms. According to a Chinese customs database, all entities with the exact names of the five firms currently hold "normal" registration status.

• Ukraine, the world's largest exporter of sunflower oil, reduced sunoil exports to 417,000 metric tons in April from 654,000 tons the same month a year earlier, and from 503,000 tons in March, Ukrainian traders' union UGA said on Thursday. The union gave no reason for the decrease. Analysts have said that a jump in local sunflower seed prices caused by a smaller harvest has forced some sunoil refineries to suspend production and exports.

• Indian rice export prices dropped to a near two-year low this week, weighed down by weaker demand and depreciation in the rupee, while Thai rates rose to a more than two-month peak. "This week rupee again started losing against the dollar, which helped traders to lower export prices. Demand is still weak from African buyers," said a Kolkata-based exporter.

• Nutrien fell short of Wall Street expectations for first-quarter profit on Wednesday, as the top potash producer was impacted by lower prices and higher energy costs. Trade tensions between the United States and China following U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs have led to volatility in crop prices over the past few months, prompting farmers to reign in costs, which in turn has hit demand for fertilizers. Its quarterly net selling price for potash in North America fell 21.6% from a year earlier to $243 per tonne, while adjusted core profit for the segment was down about 16% at $446 million. Higher energy costs in its nitrogen segment further pressured earnings in the quarter, which raised its cost of goods sold by about 10% at $663 million. Adjusted core profit fell about 12% to $408 million.

• Brazil achieved solid exports of soybeans in the month of April.  However, volume did decline from 16.6 MMT in March to 15.3 this month. The positive outlook is that the April 2025 volume surpassed the April 2024 total by almost 4 MMT. Soybean meal exports climbed from 2.0 in March to 2.27 this month, surpassing the April 2024 total by a sizable 560 K/33%. Corn exports declined from 871 K in March 2024 to 178 K this month, slightly more than triple the 51 K exported in April 2024.

CORN:

• Estimate for USDA Export Sales; corn, 28-55 mbu for 24/25; 0-12 for 25/26
• Ethanol grind: 1,020,000 barrels per day for week ending May 2; this was down 1.9% vs. last week but up 5.7% compared to last year.  Stocks were 25.191 mb; down 0.198 mb from the prior week & below the average trade estimate of a 0.101 increase
• Average trade estimates for USDA Supply/Demand report on Monday, May 12:
  
  • U.S. 2024/25 corn ending stocks: 1.445 bbu vs. 1.465 in April
  • U.S. 2025/26 corn ending stocks: 2.042 bbu (first estimate)
  • U.S. 2025 corn production: 15.779 bbu (first estimate)
  • Brazil 2024/25 corn production: 126.9 MMT vs. 126.0 in April
  • Argentina 2024/25 corn production: 49.7 MMT vs. 50.0 in April
• The Funds sell 10 K, the market was unable to hold early gains

SOYBEANS:

• Est. for USDA Export Sales: Beans: 7-18 for 24/25 and 0-6 for 25/26
  • Meal: 200-400 for 24/25 and n/a for 25/26
  • Oil: (5)-20 for 24/25 and n/a for 25/26
• Average trade estimates for USDA Supply/Demand report on Monday, May 12:
  
  • U.S. 2024/25 bean ending stocks: 0.371 bbu vs. 0.375 in April
  • U.S. 2025/26 bean ending stocks: 0.380 bbu (first estimate)
  • U.S. 2025 soybean production: 4.331 bbu (first estimate)
  • Brazil 2024/25 bean production: 169.4 MMT vs. 169.0 in April
  • Argentina 2024/25 bean prod: 49.1 MMT vs. 49.0 in April
• Funds sold 2 SB, 5 BO, bot 2 SM. May Crush, -$.03 @ $1.20

MACRO:

• WIll the UK be the first country to sign a "full and comprehensive" trade deal with the US?  Stocks are higher in anticipation.
• Wall Street Futures - Firmer:  Dow, +375; S&P, +66.25; NAS, +291
• Asia - Slightly Better:  Nikkei, +0%; Shanghai, +0.28%; Hang Seng, +0%
• EUROPE - Firmer:  DAX, +1.21%; FTSE, +0.58%; CAC +1.15%
• June Gold: -42 @$3,350     June CRUDE: +$0.93 @$59.00     June U.S. Dollar Index: +0.465 @99.435