7:50 AM Market:  Corn up 7 old / 3 new; Soy down 1 old / 3 new.

Corn 2 to 4 higher, Beans nearby 2 to 4 higher, Chicago SRW 8 to 10 higher, KC HRW 10 to 12 higher.  Overnight markets opened higher across the board…corn and wheat are still trading higher, beans slightly lower as we head into to the morning break. 

Wheat markets leading corn higher as concerns over continued dry conditions in the Western Plains and Dakotas.  Last full session of trade before tomorrow’s WASDE report - trade taking a conservative approach to ending 20-21 corn stocks with the average guess down 123 mbu from March.  Some well-respected forecasters have exports at 2.9 bbu +/- and a sub 1.1 bbu carry-out.  CONAB released their updated corn and bean production estimates – numbers were within trade expectations; they did reduce the Safrinha crop size slightly.  Export sales out later this morning.

Cash markets with few exceptions continue to firm up to export parity with the May export basis is currently 9 cents over delivery value. Very firm. CK/CN spread firmed 1¼ to +14½ today. Goldman roll on May futures longs starts tomorrow with others to follow next week. 

In global trade news, Japan's Ag Ministry announced offer deadline of April 15th in a SBS tender seeking 80,000 mt of wheat and 100,000 mt of feed barley - for delivery by September 30th.  Japan's Ag Ministry announced they bought 90,815 mt of wheat at today's tender (24,620 mt of Canadian red, 31,940 mt of US DNS, 17,615 mt of US HRW, and 16,640 mt of US white wheat) for loading in June 2021.  Egypt's GASC Thursday announced they are seeking at least 3,000 mt of Soyoil and 2,000 mt of Sunflower oil in a tender to close on Sunday, April 11^th - delivery over the May 15 to June 5 period.  Taiwan Flour Millers Assoc booked 96,645 mt of US milling wheat, prices ranged from $260.79/mt fob for White wheat, and $262.81/mt fob for HRW wheat, and $285.04/mt fob for DNS wheat.  Thai importers booked around 58,000 mt of optional origin feed Wheat today, reported $275/mt cf, June shipment.  Tunisia’s tender results not yet announced.

Equities:  Fed in no hurry to remove stimulus efforts, Biden administration eases stance on corporate tax hikes.  Asia:  Mostly firm: Nikkei, -0.07%; Shanghai, +0.08%; Hang Seng, +1.36%.  EUROPE:  Mostly firm:  DAX, unch; FTSE, +0.28%; CAC, +0.44%.  WALL STREET: DOW futures, +13; S&P, +13.25; NAS, +114.25.  EXTERNALS: June crude, -$0.52 @ $59.29; Gold: +$3.30 @ $1,745; Sep $ Index, -.052 @ 92.405.

Weather: Dryness and drought continue to increase for ~75% of second-crop corn in Brazil. ~4.50” of rain is normal of the next 30 days across the southern half of corn, but low humidities from areas of high pressure likely limit rainfall and leave most drier to much-drier than normal over the next two weeks (despite a few t-storms early next week and in 10 to 14 days). Half of corn in the north also turns much drier with some heat (especially in Goiás and southeast Mato Grosso), while t-storms dot the other half to keep ~25% of all corn moist. The U.S. turns chilly next week, while rains focus on the Corn Belt, central / southern Plains, and mid-South through then.

Weather Highlights

• 78% and 57% of Safrinha in Brazil had less than half of normal rainfall last 14 and 30 days ending Tue.
• 44% and 37% were similarly dry on the same growing day LY; 22% and 5% 2019; 10% and 6% 2018.
• 21% and 84% of Argentina soy. were drier than normal last 30 and 60 days; 1 to 3” through Saturday.
• No change: pockets of rain focus on the U.S. Corn Belt and mid-South through Sat.; wettest south.
• No change: maximums mostly in the 40s-60s next week with rains for HRW wheat and the mid-South.
• Despite recent drying, 72% of U.S. HRW production was wetter than normal over the last 30 days.

6-10 day forecast: <http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/6-10_day/>

8-14-day forecast: <http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/>

Precip estimates: http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i.gif?1432640931

Beans continue to puzzle us, today a down day.

April WASDE report Friday 4/9.

Groundwork and planting activity begins in Central CB.

Corn - $3.88 Spring    

Beans - $9.17 Spring