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7/14/2025

Grains and oilseeds cautiously higher to start the week.

• China's soybean imports hit the highest level ever for the month of June, a Reuters calculation of customs data showed on Monday, driven by a surge in shipments from top supplier Brazil.  The world's largest soybean buyer brought in 12.26 million metric tons in June, up 10.35% from 11.11 million tons a year earlier.  "June's import surge was fuelled by a strong Brazilian harvest and increased buying of Brazilian beans amid ongoing China-U.S. trade tensions," said Wan Chengzhi, an analyst at Capital Jingdu Futures.  According to shipping data provider Kpler, China imported 9.73 million tons of soybeans from Brazil in June, while shipments from the U.S. totalled just 724,000 tons.  Official origin data is expected to be released on July 20.

• The European Union and South Korea said on Monday they were working on trade deals with U.S. President Donald Trump that would soften the blow from looming tariffs as Washington threatens to impose hefty duties from August 1.  Trump stepped up his trade war on Saturday, saying he would impose a 30% tariff on most imports from the EU and Mexico from next month, adding to similar warnings for other countries including Asian economic powerhouses Japan and South Korea.  White House Economic Adviser Kevin Hassett said on Sunday that countries' trade deal offers so far have not satisfied Trump and "the tariffs are real" without improvements to their proposals.  "The president thinks that deals need to be better," Hassett told ABC's This Week program.  "And to basically put a line in the sand, he sent these letters out to folks, and we'll see how it works out."

• China, the world’s top meat buyer, imported 533,000 tonnes of meat in June, up 3.9 % on prior month, General Administration of Customs data showed.  Meat imports for January to June were 3.20 million tonnes, down 2.7% on a year ago.

• The Taiwan Flour Millers' Association has issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 89,650 metric tons of grade 1 milling wheat to be sourced from the United States, European traders said on Monday.  The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender is Wednesday, July 16.  The tender seeks a range of different wheat types in two consignments for shipment from the U.S. Pacific Northwest coast.  One consignment of 44,575 tons was sought for shipment between September 14-28, they said.  A second consignment of 45,075 tons was sought for shipment between October 2-16.

• The USDA took the EPA’s proposed fuel mandate to heart, boosting the amount of soybean oil used in 25/26 biofuel production by 1.6 billion pounds to 15.5 billion.  That’s up 26+% from the 12.26 billion total forecast for the current year.  To keep the balance sheet relatively unscathed, 25/26 SBO exports were slashed 1 billion to 700 million.  It promises to be an interesting year for veg oil prices; Brazil exports were cut 220 mil lbs as well.

CORN:

• Export Inspections report at 10:00 am CDT. Corn—66.0 needed; 58.7 last week.  Milo—2.7/0.35
• USDA Crop Progress report preview: 
  • corn silking as of July 6 was 18% & the average increase from July 6-13 is ~18%; 5-year average for July 13 is ~33% and 2024 was ~39%
  • corn dough as of July 6 was 3% & the average increase from July 6-13 is ~3%; 5-year average for July 13 is ~5% and 2024 was ~7%
• ATI Research: bias is 24/25 U.S. corn exports could edge up even a bit more from Friday’s 2.750 bbu USDA forecast. At the other end of the spectrum, 25/26 exports at 2.675 bbu still seem high—more so with 1 MMT or so of the Brazil program likely pushed into new crop.
• The Funds sold 7 K—no surprises in Friday’s July WASDE

SOYBEANS:

• Weekly Export Inspections at 10:00 am CDT: 20.6 needed; 14.3 last week
• USDA Crop Progress report preview:
  
  • beans blooming as of July 6 was 32% & average increase from July 6-13 is ~16%; 5-year average for July 13 is ~47% & 2024 was ~49%
  • beans setting pods on July 6 was 8% & average increase from July 6-13 is ~8%; 5-year average for July 13 is ~14% & 2024 was ~17%
• ATI Research: agree with USDA’s higher old & new-crop export forecasts in Friday’s Supply/Demand report as Brazil becomes less competitive & there has been a recent pick-up in foreign buying of U.S. beans.
• Funds sold 5 SB, 2SM, bot 4 BO. July Crush, +$.15 @ $1.83

MACRO:

• Mexico and European Union hit with 30% tariffs.  Stock indices lower.
• Wall Street Futures - Weaker:  Dow, -147; S&P, -20.25; NAS, -77
• Asia - Mixed:  Nikkei, -0.28%; Shanghai, +0.27%; Hang Seng, +0.26%
• EUROPE - Timidly Better:  DAX, UNC; FTSE, +0.48%; CAC +0.41%
• August Gold: +$18.6 @$3,383     August Crude Oil: +$1.07 @$69.52     Sep U.S. Dollar Index: -0.019 @97.529