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4/17/2025

Equity markets turning downward again;  grains and oilseeds look for positivity.

• The mostly dry conditions expected in coming days will give a needed boost to Argentina's soybean crop, as recent rains have put the harvest behind schedule, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said on Wednesday. Argentina, the world's largest exporter of soybean oil and meal, has been drenched with heavy rains through March and early April, muddying fields and leaving farmers unable to bring in the crop. A storm front is expected to pass through the nation's agricultural heartland, but low humidity means that it will produce little to no rainfall, the exchange said. Roads and fields have already started to dry out after several sunny days, with more on the way. By Wednesday, farmers had reaped nearly 5% of soybean fields, putting them 2.6 percentage points behind the five-year average. The crop has shown better-than-expected yields so far, the exchange added, at 3.9 metric tons per hectare. The exchange pegs the soy harvest at 48.6 million tons. Progress is also underway on the corn harvest, which is 28% complete. Yields are surprising to the upside and the corn harvest "could exceed initial expectations," according to the exchange, which estimates production at 49 million tons this season.

• U.S. upland cotton exports to India have risen in the past few months fueled by global tariff conflicts, declining American prices and rising demand in the South Asian country, industry experts said. Exports to India from February to April jumped to 155,260 running bales, from 25,901 shipped during a year ago period, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture's (USDA) data. The exports hit an over 2-1/2-year high in the week of February 20. The increase comes as Washington-Beijing trade tensions escalate, reducing U.S. cotton exports to China. China will impose 125% tariffs on U.S. goods, up from the 84% previously announced, the finance ministry said on Friday. With these tariffs and a drop in China’s demand, upland cotton grown in Texas and other regions is now finding a market in India, according to Ajay Kedia, director of Kedia Advisors.

• Malaysian palm oil futures fell for a fourth straight session on Thursday and closed at the lowest since October 1, weighed down by expectations of a rise in production, although strong rival oils limited further losses. The contract rose as much as 1.57% earlier in the session, tracking rival vegetable oils and crude oil before retreating. "When the Dalian market closed, without any further influence, the market resumed its selling pressure on the back of rising production and lower future exports due to current volatilities," a Kuala Lumpur-based trader said.

• Russian agriculture consultancy Sovecon raised its forecast for the country's 2025 wheat production to 79.7 million metric tons, up 1.1 million metric tons from the previous estimate. Sovecon also increased its winter wheat production forecast to 52.2 million metric tons, up from 50.7 million metric tons.

• China bought a record amount of Brazilian soybeans last week with volume said to be in the range of 60-70 cargoes. Crushers are now close to being covered for their May shipment needs with volume said to be on the order of 10.6 MMT. Another 400 K or 5-6 cargoes are expected to be secured. Depending on the year, Brazil’s May exports to China have ranged 6.5 and 10.3 MMT. Likely 94-95% of major exporter shipments to China this May will come from Brazil with zero U.S. business expected.

CORN:

• Est. for USDA Export Sales report; corn, 24-71 mbu for 24/25; 0-12 for 25/26
• Ethanol grind: 1,012,000 bpd for week ending April 11, dn 0.9% vs. last week but up 3.0% compared to last year. Stocks were 26.814 mb, dn 0.220 mb from the prior week and near the average trade est. of a 0.231 decrease
• Some showers & thunderstorms affect the U.S. Northern Plains, Corn Belt & mid-South
  • Thursday and Friday <.25” in northern Plains, 0.20”-0.60” elsewhere
  • rain occurs Sat and Sunday in much of the Corn Belt, mid-South & nearby areas of eastern KS-NE-OK-TX where 1.00”-3.00” is probable with the highest totals across the southeast half of the Corn Belt
  • dry for 2-3 days, then 1”-2” April 22-24 for much of Corn Belt
• The Funds bot 5 K with the weather the next 2 weeks on the wet side

SOYBEANS:

• Trade estimates for USDA Export Sales report; Beans: 4-29 mbu for 24/25 & 0-6 for 25/26; Meal: 145-400 K MT for 24/25 & 0-50 for 25/26; Oil: 5-40 K MT for 24/25 & 0-10for 25/26
• Some showers & thunderstorms affect the U.S. Northern Plains, Corn Belt & mid-South
  • Thursday and Friday <.25” in northern Plains, 0.20”-0.60” elsewhere
  • rain occurs Sat and Sunday in much of the Corn Belt, mid-South & nearby areas of eastern KS-NE-OK-TX where 1.00”-3.00” is probable with the highest totals across the southeast half of the Corn Belt
  • dry for 2-3 days, then 1”-2” April 22-24 for much of Corn Belt
• Funds bot 3 SB, 3 SM, 2 BO. May Crush, +$.04 @ $1.36

MACRO:

• Stock futures are sharply mixed after Wednesday's retreat.
• Wall Street Futures - Mixed:  Dow, -284; S&P, +37.25; NAS, +190
• Asia - Firmer:  Nikkei, +1.35%; Shanghai, +0.13%; Hang Seng, +1.61%
• EUROPE - Mixed:  DAX, +0.31%; FTSE, -0.95%; CAC +0.84%
• June Gold: -$3.2 @$3,343     May CRUDE: +$0.74 @$63.21     Jun U.S. Dollar Index: +0.117 @99.143