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3/21/2025

Grains and oilseeds are down slightly after trading even to slightly higher overnight.

• Canadian farmers are facing a two-front trade war, with China's tariffs on Canadian canola oil, canola meal and peas taking effect on Thursday and U.S. tariffs expected on additional Canadian products within two weeks. The double whammy from two major trading partners makes for a grim mood going into spring planting. "This is a terrible time," said Calgary area farmer Tara Sawyer of the Chinese tariffs."The seed has already been bought. The inputs have already been bought. We have to seed it. We have no choice but to move forward," said Sawyer, who grows barley, wheat and canola.  China announced on March 8 that tariffs on over $2.6 billion worth of Canadian agricultural and food products would kick in on March 20, retaliating against levies Ottawa introduced in October. The levies match the 100% and 25% import duties Canada slapped on China-made electric vehicles and steel and aluminum products just over four months ago.

• The U.S. Department of Agriculture said on Thursday it plans to invest up to $100 million in projects that will help fund research for therapies and potential vaccines to combat bird flu in poultry. The U.S. will also begin importing more eggs from South Korea, Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said on a call with industry groups and reporters. South Korea joins Turkey and Brazil among nations sending more eggs to the U.S. as part of the Trump administration's effort to drive down prices of the kitchen staple. Bird flu has killed nearly 170 million egg-laying hens, turkeys and other birds in an outbreak that began in 2022. Egg prices reached record highs in recent months in large part due to the constrained supply. Humans and dairy cows have also tested positive.

• Brazilian Finance Minister Fernando Haddad said on Thursday his government expects lengthy tariff negotiations with the United States, and suggested they would include trade discussions involving sugar and ethanol. "As they are waging war with the entire world, they will not make an exception for Brazil. That certainly will not happen," he told GloboNews TV. "But when we sit at the negotiating table, they will bring up ethanol, and we will bring up sugar."

• Argentine oilseed workers lifted a strike and returned to work at soybean processing plants belonging to conglomerate Vicentin after the firm scheduled payments for overdue wages, union SOEA said on Thursday. The union had initiated the strike last week at Vicentin's plants, temporarily disrupting soy processing in Argentina, the world's largest exporter of soybean oil and meal.

• The proposed docking fees for Chinese vessels coming to U.S. ports is getting much discussion. Some have it adding $.40 per bushel to the cost of U.S. soybeans headed to China. This would undoubtedly encourage China to ramp up its South American origination. U.S. administrations have had a penchant for consistently shooting export agriculture in the foot, starting with a bean export embargo back in the mid-70’s which sent Japan to Brazil for supplies.

CORN:

• ATI Research: U.S. corn export sales of 58.9 mbu in the latest week
  • toward the upper end of the trade range of 31-67; more than triple the 16.1/wk needed to reach the annual USDA forecast
    • unshipped sales are up 122 mbu (18%) compared to last year
    • Impressive buying from Japan (19), S Korea (16) & Taiwan (5)
• BAGE Argentina corn production estimate is unchanged at 49.0 MMT
  
  • harvest gained momentum in the latest week, advancing 5.5% to reach 13.6% of the estimated area
• Latest NWS April forecast: above-normal precip for IL, IN, WI, MI, western 1/2 of OH, eastern 2/3 of IA, MO & far SE corner of MN
• The Funds bought 6—export demand and firm cash markets

SOYBEANS:

• ATI Research: U.S. export sales were 13.0 mbu
  • total was below the low end of the trade range of 15-33 but above the 6.2 needed to reach the annual USDA forecast
  • strong soybean oil sales of 34.2 K MT; soybean meal okay at 182.2
• BAGE Argentina bean production estimate is reduced 1.0 MMT to 48.6 MMT
  
  • crop estimate was lowered due to hot, dry conditions experienced during the key growing period in the north
• Latest NWS April forecast: above-normal precip for IL, IN, WI, MI, western 1/2 of OH, eastern 2/3 of IA, MO & far SE corner of MN
• Funds bot 2 SB, 2 BO, sold 2 SM. May Crush, -$.03 @ $1.10

MACRO:

• Stock to follow up a volatile Thursday with a lower opening?
• Wall Street Futures - Weaker:  Dow, -150; S&P, -22.25; NAS, -92
• Asia - Mixed:  Nikkei, -0.2%; Shanghai, +1.29%; Hang Seng, -2.19%
• EUROPE - Mixed:  DAX, +1.04%; FTSE, -0.59%; CAC +0.74%
• April Gold: -$5.1 @$3,039     May CRUDE: -0.21 @$67.86     Jun U.S. Dollar Index: +0.168 @103.497