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10/31/24 Commentary:

• Corn popped into a 1-week low overnight. SX/F is firmer.

• Ukraine’s corn production problems and high-priced Brazilian corn are not the only factors supporting U.S. exports. Output among the smaller exporters such as Canada, the EU, Russia and Serbia is estimated 7.6 million metric tons lower this year. Also, the USDA’s 3.6 million metric tons expected recovery in the South African crop looks questionable. The impact of smaller crops in these countries is likely to cut their combined corn exports by close to 5 million metric tons, possibly adding another 190 million bu. to potential U.S. shipments.

• Brazil's soy planted area was seen rising 1.5% in the 2024/25 crop from the previous cycle, Rabobank said on Wednesday. In a report about Brazil's agribusiness outlook for 2025, Rabobank said it expects the country soybean planted area to reach 47 million hectares (116 million acres) in the current crop.

• Fertilizer maker CF Industries on Wednesday reported a 68% rise in third-quarter profit, aided by strong prices for nitrogen fertilizers. Benchmark ammonia prices reached to about $530 per ton in September from $410 per ton at the end of June, aided by production shut-ins in Trinidad and Egypt. Prices of natural gas, a key feedstock for nitrogen fertilizers, remained subdued during much of the quarter, helping CF Industries' margins. During the third quarter, the average cost of natural gas was $2.10 per million British thermal unit (mmbtu), compared to $2.54 per mmbtu last year, the company said. The company's ammonia production volumes rose 8.7% during the third quarter, helped by its acquisition of the Waggaman facility in Louisiana.

• H5N1 bird flu was confirmed in a pig on a backyard farm in Oregon, the first detection of the virus in swine in the country, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said on Wednesday. Pigs represent a particular concern for the spread of bird flu because they can become co-infected with bird and human viruses, which could swap genes to form a new, more dangerous virus that can more easily infect humans. The USDA said there is no risk to the nation's pork supply from the Oregon case and that the risk to the public from bird flu remains low.

CORN:

• Export Sales trade est.; Corn 71-138 million bu. for 24/25 and 0-20 for 25/26
• Ethanol grind: 1,082,000 bpd for week ending Oct. 25, up 0.1% vs. last week and 2.9% vs. last year. Stocks were 21.771 mb, down 0.452 mb from the prior week and well below the average trade estimate of a 0.058 increase
• U.S. corn harvested on average increases ~11% from Oct. 27-Nov. 3. USDA est. harvest at 81% on Oct. 27, while the 5-year average on Nov. 3 is ~75%. This underscores the rapid pace of the 2024 harvest
• since 2019, the largest increase in U.S. corn harvested over Oct. 27-Nov. 3 is 12% in 2022 (70% to 82%)
• Avg. crop insurance harvest price for CZ4 corn as of Oct. 30 is $4.1636
• The Funds sold 5 K, ideas rain outlook will improve river corn logistics

SOYBEANS:

• December soybean meal futures closed at $301.60 on Wed.—lowest settlement price for the contract since Aug. 13
• Trade estimates for USDA Export Sales report (week ending Oct. 24)
• Beans: 59-103 for 24/25 and 0-6 for 25/26
• Meal: 100-350 for 24/25 and 0-50 for 25/26
• Oil: 0-30 for 24/25 and 0-15 for 25/26
• Since 2019, the largest increase in U.S. soybeans harvested over Oct. 27-Nov. 3 is 13% in 2019 (62% to 75%)
• Avg. crop insurance harvest price for SX4 beans as of Oct. 30 is $10.0380
• Funds: bot 5 K SB, even SM., bot 6 BO. Dec crush: $1.69, -$.01

FINANCIALS:

 Disappointing after hours results from Big Tech pressures futures.

WALL STREET FUTURES - Weaker:

Dow, -193; S&P, -40; NAS, -199

Asia - Mostly weaker:

Nikkei, -0.5%; Shanghai, +0.42%;

Hang Seng, -0.31%

EUROPE - Mixed:

DAX, +0.44%; FTSE, -0.78%; CAC +0.93%

December Gold: $-14.9 @2,786

December CRUDE: +$0.32 @$68.93

Dec U.S. Dollar Index: -0.092 @103.862