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11/20/24 Commentary:

• Grain markets are weaker with corn spreads firmer and soybean spreads weaker.

• Brazil’s September crush came in just shy of 4.6 million metric tons which is a new high for the month. Taking into account October soybean exports of 4.7 million metric tons (5.6 LY) and a similar crush number for October due to record soybean meal exports of 2.4 million metric tons (1.9 LY), end of the month soybean stocks are somewhere near the 25 million metric tons level. Which, is a 6 million metric tons smaller total than in 2023 and is expected to trim the country’s Nov-Jan soybean exports by close to 4 ½ million metric tons (165 million bu.). This may provide the U.S. with a window of export opportunity (China?).

• China's soybean imports from the U.S. more than doubled in October from a year earlier, marking a seventh month of growth, as buyers accelerated shipments fearing a rise in trade tensions if Donald Trump were to return to the White House. China, the world's largest soybean buyer, imported 541,434 metric tons of soybeans from the United States last month, up from 228,253 tons a year ago, according to the General Administration of Customs data on Wednesday. However, the bulk of China's imports for October came from Brazil, with 8.09 million metric tons imported overall.

• Malaysia has raised its December export tax for crude palm oil to 10% from 9.5% and increased its reference price, a circular on the Malaysian Palm Oil Board website showed on Tuesday. The world's second-largest palm exporter calculated a reference price of 4,471.39 ringgit ($1,001.21) per metric ton for December. The November reference price was 3,949.73 ringgit a ton. The export tax structure starts at 3% for crude palm oil in a range of 2,250 to 2,400 ringgit per ton. The maximum tax rate is set at 10% when prices exceed 4,050 ringgit a ton.

• Corteva expects low-single-digit percentage net sales growth through 2027, the U.S. agrichemicals firm said on Tuesday, banking on its exclusive seeds and crop chemical products. The top U.S. supplier of corn and soy seeds has invested heavily to improve the yields of its products as it bets on the long-term demand for food, feedstock, and biofuels. The company forecast 2027 revenue to be in the range of $18.2 billion to $18.8 billion, compared with its expected 2024 revenue of about $17.1 billion.

CORN:

• Ethanol grind at 9:30 am CST. Grind last week was 1,113,000 barrels/day vs. 1,023,000 on this date last year. Ethanol stocks last week were 22.039 mil. and last year for this week were 21.652 mil.
• Consultant: Argentina 2024/25 corn production est. is unchanged this week at 48.0 million metric tons (USDA is currently at 51.0); neutral bias going forward
• planting is at 38.5% as of late last week; in the core production areas, corn is 75-80% planted with 30-40% south & zero far north
• late planting should be completed in early January
• Clues to corn feeding in Cattle on Feed report to be released on Nov. 22
• avg. trade est. for Nov. 1 on feed is 100.0% of 2023 (range: 99.5-101.3)
• The Funds sold 3 K, lack of news and no new daily sales of late

SOYBEANS:

• Consultant: Argentina 2024/25 bean production est. is unchanged this week at 57.0 million metric tons (USDA is currently at 51.0); neutral bias going forward
• planting is at 20.1% as of late last week; in the core production areas, beans are 35-40% planted with 10-20% south & zero far north
• although major growing areas are drier than normal, the 6-10 day forecast is projecting improved rain chances for central areas
• Additional rainfall is forecast for South American crops the next 14 days
• 88% of Brazil is projected to see normal or above normal precip
• 78% of Argentina is projected to see normal or above normal precip
• Funds sold 5 SB, 5 BO & 2 SM. Dec crush: unch@ $1.30

FINANCIALS:

Major indices slightly higher; possible escalation of Black Sea conflict looms, however.

WALL STREET FUTURES - Firmer:

Dow, +83; S&P, +8; NAS, +32

Asia - Mixed:

Nikkei, -0.16%; Shanghai, +0.66%;

Hang Seng, +0.21%

EUROPE - Firmer:

DAX, +0.39%; FTSE, +0.02%; CAC +0.23%

December Gold: $-3.9 @2,627

January CRUDE: +$0.28 @$69.52

Dec U.S. Dollar Index: +0.452 @106.143