Click Here for Our 2024 Harvest Policies

4/8/2025

Equity markets continue to fall; grains are mixed with corn down and beans/wheat higher.

• China has bought 52,000 tons of Indian rapeseed meal in the past three weeks - four times the amount Beijing imported from India in the whole of 2024 - after Chinese authorities imposed a 100% retaliatory tariff on Canadian imports, industry sources said. India's rapeseed meal exports will help China, the world's top consumer, replace imports from Canada while easing pressure on local rapeseed prices in India, which is sitting on large stockpiles of the widely used animal feed. "Chinese buyers started showing interest in Indian rapeseed meal in the last few weeks due to tariffs on Canadian supplies," said an official with a leading rapeseed meal exporter.

• The U.S. Department of Agriculture on Monday rated 48% of the U.S. winter wheat crop in good-to-excellent condition, above analyst expectations but down from 56% at this time a year ago. Wheat ratings in the first weekly crop progress report of the 2025 growing season have deteriorated since the USDA released its last national report before the winter.  This reflects the re-emergence of dry conditions in the Plains breadbasket. The government on Nov. 25 had rated 55% of the U.S. crop in good-to-excellent condition, the highest late-November rating in six years.

• Leading South Korean animal feed maker Nonghyup Feed Inc (NOFI) purchased about 65,000 metric tons of animal feed wheat in an international tender on Tuesday, European traders said. It was bought in one consignment at an estimated $263.49 a ton cost and freight (c&f) included, plus a $1.50 a ton surcharge for additional port unloading. The seller was believed to be trading house Cargill. The wheat was sought for arrival in South Korea around August 15, five days later than originally sought in the tender. Reports reflect assessments from traders and further estimates of prices and volumes are possible later. The wheat can be sourced from worldwide origins excluding Russia, Argentina, Pakistan, Denmark and China.

• Indonesia will adjust its crude palm oil export tax to reduce the burden on exporters from U.S. tariffs, Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati said on Tuesday. Indonesia currently imposes an export tax of up to $288 per ton on crude palm oil, depending on price levels. It also imposes separate export levies on the vegetable oil. The move should reduce the burden on exporters "by an equivalent of 5%", the minister said without providing further detail. She was speaking at a gathering of business executives to discuss government efforts to mitigate risks from U.S. tariffs.

• Chinese agricultural stocks rose sharply on Tuesday as investors bet tariffs would limit U.S. agricultural imports and boost domestic producers, defying a broader market crash sparked by the escalating U.S.-China trade war. Shares of Dabeinong Tech, a seed and animal feed producer, rose 6.45% by 0424 GMT on Tuesday and shares of Wens Foodstuff one of the country's largest pig breeders, were up 5.1%. Stocks of other key agricultural firms Wellhope Foods and New Hope Liuhe rose by 6.3% and 2.45%, respectively.

CORN:

• Avg. trade estimates for USDA Supply/Demand report on April 10:
  
  • US 24/25 corn carryout: 1.510 bbu (range: 1.405-1.605) compared to 1.530 in Mar
  • South American Corn Production:
    
    • Brazil: 125.9 MMT (range: 124.0-129.7) v. 126.0 in March
    • Argentina: 49.3 MMT (48.0-51.0) vs. 50.0 in March
• ATI Research: 24/25 U.S. corn ending stocks estimate is unchanged this week at 1.615 bbu (USDA: 1.540)
• U.S. corn planting progress: 2% vs. 3% last year & 2% for the 5-year average
  • Light rains Wednesday through Friday keep the wettest areas of the Corn Belt and KY wet, but otherwise a wide area will be dry over the next 7 to 10 days
• Funds bought 4 K: “only store in town’? Some see 50 mbu export boost

SOYBEANS:

• Avg. trade estimates for USDA Supply/Demand report on April 10:
  • US 24/25 bean c-out: 0.379 bbu (range: 0.320-0.405) compared to 0.380 in Mar
  • South American Soybean Production:
    • Brazil: 169.1 MMT (range: 167.5-171.0) v. 169.0 in March
    • Argentina: 48.8 MMT (47.5-49.5) vs. 49.0 in March
• ATI Research: 24/25 U.S. ending stocks estimate is unchanged this week at 0.420 bbu (USDA: 0.380)
• Light rains Wednesday through Friday keep the wettest areas of the U.S. Corn Belt and KY wet, but otherwise a wide area will be dry over the next 7 to 10 days
• The Funds bot 3 SB, 4 SM, sold 5 BO. May Crush, -$.02 @ $1.48

MACRO:

• Futures are indicating a rebound day on Wall Street.  Is the worst behind us or is somebody bargain shopping?
• Wall Street Futures - Firmer:  Dow, +1132.4; S&P, +132.5; NAS, +437
• Asia - Firmer:  Nikkei, +6.03%; Shanghai, +1.58%; Hang Seng, +1.51%
• EUROPE - Firmer:  DAX, +2.68%; FTSE, +2.56%; CAC +2.71%
• June Gold: +$50.2 @$3,024     May CRUDE: +$0.35 @$61.05     Jun U.S. Dollar Index: +0.013 @102.972