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4/1/2025

Grains and oilseeds are firmer this morning as we continue to digest yesterday's report.

• The U.S. soybean crush likely dropped in February to 5.662 million short tons, or 188.7 million bushels, according to analysts surveyed by Reuters ahead of a monthly U.S. Department of Agriculture report due on Tuesday. If the average of eight analyst estimates is realized, it would be down 11.2% from the 212.5 million bushels crushed in January and down 2.4% from the 193.4 million bushels crushed in February last year, which was a day longer due to the leap year. Crushing rates have generally increased in recent years as several new plants have come online while other crushers have expanded capacity to meet rising demand for soyoil from biofuel makers. The daily crush pace last month slowed from January due to harsh winter weather that reduced plant efficiency and as a glut of soymeal in the market prompted some plants to slow output, analysts said. But the processing rate of 6.739 million bushels a day, based on analyst estimates, was up 1% from February 2024 as more crush plants were in operation.

• Oil prices steadied near five-week highs on Tuesday as threats by U.S. President Donald Trump to impose secondary tariffs on Russian crude and attack Iran countered worries about the impact of a trade war on global growth. The contracts settled at five-week highs a day earlier. "While stricter sanctions on Iran, Venezuela, and Russia could constrain global supply, the U.S. tariffs are likely to dampen global energy demand and slow economic growth, which in turn will affect oil demand further out on the curve," SEB analyst Ole Hvalbye said. "As a result, betting on a clear direction for the market has been – and remains – challenging," he added. Trump on Sunday told NBC News that he was very angry with Russian President Vladimir Putin and would impose secondary tariffs of 25% to 50% on Russian oil buyers if Moscow tried to block efforts to end the war in Ukraine. Tariffs on buyers of oil from Russia, the world's second largest oil exporter, would disrupt global supply and hurt Moscow's biggest customers, China and India.

• Australia's wheat production is likely to drop by 16% in the year starting July 1 from the previous year's bumper crop as dryness in some regions reduces soil moisture, pulling forecasts in line with historical averages, traders and analysts said. Farmers in the third-largest wheat exporter are poised to start planting this month against a backdrop of tightening world supplies that are expected to support prices. While top producing states New South Wales and Western Australia have ample soil moisture, growers in Victoria and South Australia are likely to struggle with severe dryness, traders and analysts said. "There is no sub-soil moisture across Victoria or South Australia. Last year they had very little in crop rain but at least we had sub-soil moisture going into planting," said Stefan Meyer, head of a grains trading team at Sydney brokers StoneX. "This year's crop potential is looking around average or just above average and the market is telling us there is a problem."

• Raw sugar futures on ICE fell on Monday, hitting a near three-week low, while coffee and cocoa also closed down.

• The March 1 stocks report indicated that nation-wide, corn producers had considerably less on-farm inventory compared to 2024. The latter was down 579 mbu from LY while commercial stocks were 377 K greater. On-farm supplies were 55% of the total, against 60% LY. Il producers had 44% of that state’s total on the farm, down 9 points from 2024; KS, just 34%. IL, IA, KS, NE and ND all had 8-9% less on-farm stocks this year while SD and MN on-farm stocks were nearly unchanged.

CORN:

• ATI Research: 24/25 US corn end stocks unch at 1.615 bbu (USDA: 1.540)
  
  • The USDA’s March 1 corn stocks estimate and the annual feed/residual forecast of 5.775 bbu suggests that March-Aug feeding will total 1.907 bbu, or nearly 160 mbu above the 23/24 total
  • Sept-Feb disappearance is 182 smaller; a 100 mbu or cut in annual use is expected in the April Supply & Demand report
• Consultant: Brazil 24/25 corn production estimate is unchanged this week at 122.0 MMT; neutral to lower bias going forward
• U.S. corn planting progress:
  • TX, 55% this week; 45% last week; 55% last year; 53% for 5-year avg.
  • LA: 81/61/67/74;
  • MS: 30/14/15/17;
  • AR: 22/10/10/6
• The Funds bought 5 K, stocks report wasn’t quite as bearish as thought

SOYBEANS:

• ATI Research: 24/25 U.S. end stocks est. unch at 0.420 bbu (USDA: 0.380)
• Consultant: Brazil 24/25 crop est. is unch at 169.0 MMT; neutral bias
  
  • nationwide harvest is pegged at 81% as of late last week compared to 73% last year and 79% avg. (Patria AgroNegocious)
  • last major state to harvest is Rio Grande do Sul, where harvest stood at 25% last week. Yields are expected to be dn 30% due to hot/dry conditions in January/February
• USDA March 31 report U.S. estimate of 83.5mm acres is down from the Ag Outlook Forum projection of 84.0 and a 5-year low
• The Funds sold 5 SB, 3 BO, 2 SM. May Crush, +$.04 @ $1.23

MACRO:

• Stock futures indicate a weaker start to Tuesday's trading.
• Wall Street Futures - Weaker:  Dow, -120; S&P, -10.5; NAS, -14
• Asia - Firmer:  Nikkei, +0.02%; Shanghai, +0.38%; Hang Seng, +0.38%
• EUROPE - Firmer:  DAX, +1.26%; FTSE, +0.69%; CAC +0.78%
• June Gold: +$17.3 @$3,168     May CRUDE: +0.49 @$71.97     Jun U.S. Dollar Index: -0.033 @103.883