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4/23/24 Commentary:

• Grain markets are trying to extend their rally; the wheat market is leading the way again.

• According to Chinese Customs (GACC), soybean imports totaled 5.54 million metric tons in March (-19% YoY), with a record of nearly 3 million metric tons from Brazil (+81% YoY) and a 55% cut in imports from the U.S. YoY (at 2.18 million metric tons). Considering a combined 50 million bu. of unshipped soybean sales to China and unknown destinations, and after the USDA yesterday showed 8 million bu. in export inspections to China, it appears unlikely that the U.S. will continue to export more than ~20 million bu. to the country for the remainder of 23-24.

• USDA weekly crop progress report showed 50% of U.S. winter wheat crop in good-to-excellent condition, short of the average analyst estimates polled by Reuters by 4 percentage points. The ratings are still the highest for this time of year since 2020, though the surprising reduction may increase concerns about dry weather in the southern Plains. Corn, soy and spring wheat plantings were in line with analyst estimates.

• Ukraine grain exports might total 6-7 million metric tons in April despite Russian attacks on Ukrainian port infrastructure on the Black Sea, industry source told Reuters. Russia has recently stepped-up attacks on Ukrainian seaports, damaging grain storage facilities in the Port Pivdennyi in Odesa region last week. Local media reported one of the strikes may have damaged railway tracks to the port of Chornomorsk cargo terminals in the region.

• Bayer confirmed its full-year forecast for earnings and cash flow on Monday despite slow business at its crop science and consumer health divisions. "Our Crop Science and Consumer Health divisions expect a slow start to the year due to market dynamics, but we feel confident in our full-year targets and the direction of our businesses," CEO Bill Anderson said in his speech for the April 26 annual general meeting (AGM), which was posted on the company's website on Monday.

• Brazil's government said on Monday that four additional poultry plants have been cleared to sell halal products to Malaysia, a move it hopes will allow exports to the Asian country to double when compared to last year's levels. The South American country, the world's largest exporter of chicken meat, sold 13,600 metric tons of halal chicken to Malaysia in 2023, which was worth some $20 million, according to government data.

CORN:

• ATI Research: 23/24 U.S. corn ending stocks est. at 2.078 billion Bu., which is unchanged compared to last week (USDA: 2.122)
• USDA Crop Progress report
  • corn planting: 12% vs. 6% last week, 12% last year & the 10% avg.
  • corn emerged: 3% compared to 2% last years & the 2% avg.
  • sorghum planting: 17% vs. 14% last week, 17% last year & 18% avg.
• Dry weather forecast for next 10-14 days for ~70% of safrinha corn in Brazil as dry season starts; slightly to moderately warmer than normal temps
• Dry weather also occurs over the next two weeks across the heart of Argentina’s corn producing areas, allowing harvest to continue
• Funds bought 12 K—Russia and Ukraine conflict escalating

SOYBEANS:

• ATI Research: 23/24 U.S. bean ending stocks est. at 0.375 billion Bu.—unchanged compared to last week (USDA: 0.340)
• U.S. soybean planting: 8% versus 3% last week, 8% last year & 4%R avg.
• Consultant: Brazil soybean production est. at 147.0 million metric tons, which is unchanged compared to last week; neutral to slightly higher bias
• Above to much above normal rain is forecast in Rio Grande do Sul in Brazil the next two weeks; harvest at ~50%, but may slow & quality concerns rise
• Dry weather occurs over the next two weeks across the heart of Argentina’s soybean producing areas, allowing harvest to continue
• Funds bought 8 SB, 2 SM, 5 BO. May crush, +1.5 @ $.934/ bu

FINANCIALS:

U.S. stock futures rise as the S&P ends a 6-day losing run; European stocks are also higher

WALL STREET FUTURES - Firmer:

Dow, +74; S&P, +12; NAS, +53

Asia - Mixed:

Nikkei, +0.3%; Shanghai, -0.74%;

Hang Seng, +1.92%

EUROPE - Firmer:

DAX, +0.9%; FTSE, +0.48%; CAC +0.51%

June Gold: $-33.1 @2,313

June CRUDE: $-0.12 @$81.78

Jun U.S. Dollar Index: +0.047 @105.913